{"id":"W7097295368","doi":"","title":"J1.3 GENERATING INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR ENSEMBLE FORECASTS: MONTE-CARLO VS. DYNAMIC METHODS","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Ensemble forecasting; Measure (data warehouse); Context (archaeology); Ensemble learning","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003137248,0.0005869863,0.0009649451,0.001120343,0.0006271835,0.00217988,0.001301797,0.00134207,0.00514024],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01611065,0.0004750399,0.0007218613,0.001096587,0.0005396854,0.002016953,0.001158521,0.001788093,0.001272016],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0009056514,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001945905,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01166695,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.008518207,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988256,0.0004925849,0.00007734166,0.0001597318,0.0003304718,0.0001142699],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9959187,0.002722259,0.0002757956,0.0003685351,0.000610207,0.0001044524],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000102014,0.0000473203,0.001993684,0.00013958,0.0001221268,0.00004878378,0.0000500633,0.795281,0.0009951721,0.08891205,0.005647165,0.106661],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000009389607,0.00001083721,0.0002082201,0.00003743584,0.00001071269,0.00001701869,0.00000964262,0.9712307,0.0005622302,0.02594063,0.001947793,0.0000153245],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.01109292,0.000595208,0.9766272,0.000790784,0.0002007104,0.00006091233,0.0003641387,0.0004492669,0.009818779],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.447493,0.0016025,0.5404805,0.0005260145,0.00050542,0.0003489742,0.001331523,0.0004883972,0.007223689],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01166695,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02319807,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3858252930251181,"score_gpt":0.5550066635392031,"score_spread":0.169181370514085,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}