{"id":"W7097544186","doi":"","title":"Working Paper 8/2003Coherent Predictions of Low Count Time Series","year":2003,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Credit Risk and Financial Regulations","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Series (stratigraphy); Autoregressive model; Interval (graph theory); Count data; Point estimation; Integer (computer science); Sample (material); Time series","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003815123,0.0003739334,0.0004066297,0.001174036,0.0005802764,0.002458668,0.0009056627,0.0009644259,0.01167459],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01795905,0.00025406,0.0003740004,0.001119241,0.0005946482,0.00116918,0.0006529039,0.0008180544,0.002648278],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002717975,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001565201,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.06470635,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.06104141,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990788,0.0001569273,0.00004131328,0.0001282693,0.0005232003,0.00007153594],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9953231,0.001699448,0.0008066765,0.0008193556,0.001176038,0.0001753216],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005945092,0.0002012386,0.138594,0.0002659094,0.0001561687,0.0007997749,0.001930666,0.1578406,0.003232714,0.1813569,0.1309549,0.3840728],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000198029,0.0001143213,0.1187781,0.0002871457,0.0001008575,0.0002701142,0.001085291,0.5710021,0.006855109,0.1721455,0.1290421,0.0001214111],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.5216821,0.003646988,0.342693,0.01465342,0.0007995502,0.000407755,0.02636169,0.002930145,0.08682538],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9264588,0.001092746,0.03766419,0.0002800527,0.0001671753,0.00009029471,0.009521928,0.0001896506,0.0245351],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.06470635,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1286594,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01646749838497284,"score_gpt":0.1889499416783481,"score_spread":0.1724824432933753,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}