{"id":"W7097739933","doi":"","title":"2013b), “Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach,” mimeo","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Canadian Policy and Governance","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Oil price; Empirical research; Production (economics); Empirical evidence; Economic forecasting","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003222817,0.0007060106,0.0006302476,0.003009758,0.001013408,0.002918568,0.001236635,0.001708804,0.00963095],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01000496,0.0005402057,0.0007332286,0.004331058,0.0006493463,0.002482248,0.0009904489,0.002206977,0.002145157],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.008871095,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.01155009,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.7857358,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.8675609,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992688,0.0001477514,0.00005102528,0.0000748232,0.0003435827,0.0001140059],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9972066,0.0006523703,0.0003108216,0.00009312484,0.001586041,0.0001510003],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004202195,0.00009065435,0.0456708,0.0003236555,0.0004668327,0.000208492,0.0004499166,0.06327131,0.0004857649,0.02812255,0.6406906,0.2197993],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002440454,0.00009775999,0.1375069,0.000670812,0.0009245379,0.0001417873,0.001850895,0.447668,0.004593871,0.08285238,0.3231161,0.0003329962],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.097877,0.02207405,0.3282547,0.2458422,0.004392889,0.0004829865,0.1430524,0.003576415,0.1544474],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7502574,0.01509158,0.1376559,0.008343458,0.002145535,0.0002836728,0.03599581,0.0006211194,0.04960551],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.7857358,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4310521,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03235134001802373,"score_gpt":0.2660916573775216,"score_spread":0.2337403173594979,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}