{"id":"W7100274834","doi":"","title":"ARMAX Modeling of Term Structure Supply Effects: Theory and Some Evidence for Canada by","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Credit Risk and Financial Regulations","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Term (time); Yield curve; Debt; Maturity (psychological); Interest rate; Government debt; Bond; Affine term structure model","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003224585,0.0007828186,0.001107939,0.001376481,0.001592307,0.002606052,0.002189165,0.001179047,0.00660839],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01198199,0.0006200139,0.001085283,0.002662305,0.001254016,0.001380315,0.001094443,0.002058157,0.0004834678],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.009326313,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.009841173,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.8918815,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.8032519,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9993556,0.0001985894,0.00002227466,0.0001335791,0.00013362,0.0001562515],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9958269,0.002446159,0.0005347345,0.0002430434,0.000750573,0.0001985798],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004651511,0.0001167579,0.04167029,0.000176741,0.0003665759,0.0004417637,0.0008137166,0.553811,0.0009991853,0.3315935,0.01092567,0.05861961],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0000763549,0.00003161394,0.008496185,0.00003867346,0.0001442882,0.00003753841,0.0001409604,0.9453478,0.0001608934,0.03824322,0.007245619,0.00003690874],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6708106,0.009212137,0.2369213,0.007975839,0.0002921528,0.0002759289,0.003017155,0.0009721362,0.07052277],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9448239,0.003300441,0.01691916,0.0003430252,0.0001087242,0.00007738242,0.0009928717,0.0001555625,0.03327882],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1081185,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2175105,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0343025707733927,"score_gpt":0.2396595761385855,"score_spread":0.2053570053651929,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}