{"id":"W7102683410","doi":"10.1108/jes-04-2025-0252","title":"From the ballot to the bond market: the impact of Donald Trump's return on US treasury yields and inflation expectations","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Economic Studies","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Alberta","funders":"","keywords":"Bond; Basis point; Volatility (finance); Treasury; Inflation (cosmology); Index (typography); Event study; Interest rate; Financial market","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001207114,0.0001178916,0.0003761884,0.0001044545,0.0002011918,0.00006066419,0.0002471127,0.00004063344,0.00009209502],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000503301,0.00006200846,0.0002052859,0.00009535033,0.00008766344,0.00009560757,0.00007456428,0.0001776469,0.000003667569],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001744319,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00004482442,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0005290519,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0007113746,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998948,0.00004792104,0.0007255239,0.0001399639,0.00002730381,0.0001112413],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9976128,0.001429192,0.0006225904,0.0002530326,0.00005501564,0.00002739164],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004505865,0.00005672309,0.887651,0.00001084501,0.001934992,6.760528e-7,0.005043965,0.0007867402,0.000007718763,0.01224564,0.08902926,0.002781832],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003771042,0.0001265587,0.9481953,0.00004258436,0.0000363158,0.000001791926,0.001764728,0.009173035,0.00000463551,0.0356027,0.004599229,0.00007606151],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9694563,0.005522611,0.00006951854,0.01467812,0.0004623228,0.0001751582,0.0001533947,0.000002018189,0.009480591],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9981527,0.0009647761,0.00004172949,0.0003380484,0.0002023783,0.000007579535,8.287898e-7,0.000005822723,0.0002861759],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.08443003,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2528632,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03367133375737694,"score_gpt":0.2885242503578614,"score_spread":0.2548529166004845,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}