{"id":"W7108447063","doi":"10.1029/2025sw004607","title":"VAMPIRE: Using a Random Forest to Forecast Earth's Outer Van Allen Radiation Belt","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Space Weather","topic":"Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics","field":"Physics and Astronomy","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Lakehead University","funders":"Science and Technology Facilities Council; Natural Environment Research Council","keywords":"Random forest; Feature (linguistics); Van Allen radiation belt; Nowcasting; Spacecraft; Flux (metallurgy)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00009061371,0.0001795274,0.0002019407,0.0000377613,0.0001183324,0.00007468324,0.0001255999,0.00005539583,0.0008807733],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000004968785,0.0001681111,0.0001231898,0.0001523868,0.00001901381,0.0001205991,0.00006517121,0.000100795,0.0001219156],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00002984117,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00007614115,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000702974,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0004828402,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991634,0.00003105762,0.0001614318,0.0002491878,0.00009872071,0.0002961416],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.999526,0.00003301045,0.00005507564,0.0002649271,0.0000472106,0.00007372266],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0006967976,0.0005446325,0.2808636,0.00007133927,0.0008962339,0.00001213422,0.004656293,0.03684462,0.005042573,0.1446246,0.03935307,0.4863941],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.008012542,0.0002089664,0.01378397,0.0001772532,0.0002609104,0.000001764616,0.001336526,0.07237154,0.001694758,0.02764995,0.8733937,0.001108141],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4537093,0.0001215235,0.408731,0.001541149,0.0005909388,0.0008358099,0.00002994712,0.00007386261,0.1343665],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9443402,0.000002373838,0.005297475,0.0003522685,0.0003630209,0.000039034,0.00003688403,0.00003471238,0.049534],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.8340406,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.964385,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0061504940264582,"score_gpt":0.2364664520477791,"score_spread":0.2303159580213208,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}