{"id":"W7109953141","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.5863702","title":"Are there Political Biases in Fiscal Forecasts?  <div> <span>Evidence from Indian State Government Budgets</span></div>","year":2025,"lang":"","type":"preprint","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Fiscal Policies and Political Economy","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Carleton University","funders":"","keywords":"Revenue; Competition (biology); State (computer science); Politics; Government (linguistics); Enforcement","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.009162407,0.0002662836,0.0004767501,0.002007739,0.0007583423,0.004298467,0.0006244813,0.001159346,0.01350588],"category_scores_gemma":[0.08723395,0.0004512939,0.0004363361,0.004494337,0.001329135,0.002878556,0.0008207854,0.001773995,0.003967014],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001692784,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001272491,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.04128172,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.04169203,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9960814,0.001239537,0.0003450463,0.0005128878,0.001150396,0.0006707457],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.8856433,0.06015267,0.03756754,0.006893845,0.00801453,0.001728097],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0006669968,0.0001375411,0.8753952,0.0001786279,0.0003794801,0.0001449978,0.001995613,0.002888454,0.000290093,0.01955282,0.02912813,0.06924199],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000126462,0.00007949887,0.9360132,0.000243138,0.0003062294,0.00007685567,0.003251538,0.004506032,0.00102925,0.03092048,0.02338225,0.00006522296],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.845269,0.0057358,0.003430854,0.04701274,0.0006905673,0.0000493621,0.01021605,0.0002317728,0.08736402],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9928018,0.001224381,0.0003041118,0.001328987,0.0004587062,0.00001235059,0.001288486,0.00003747421,0.002543773],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04128172,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.08208281,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03473281023835162,"score_gpt":0.254536666212307,"score_spread":0.2198038559739554,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}