{"id":"W7112235260","doi":"","title":"Box A:An Alternative UK Economic Forecast","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"book-chapter","venue":"University of Birmingham Research Portal (University of Birmingham)","topic":"Artificial Intelligence Applications","field":"Computer Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Inflation (cosmology); Economic forecasting; Quarter (Canadian coin); Forecast period; Economic indicator; Term (time); Economic impact analysis; Economic analysis; Geopolitics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001067169,0.0004214128,0.0007982392,0.001934864,0.0009182254,0.00005891246,0.004891861,0.0005302497,0.002276612],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00004364827,0.0006372848,0.0004849766,0.0003944648,0.001932958,0.0009879454,0.002578141,0.0009532155,0.0003720564],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000346818,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001523958,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.008128891,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.007608261,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9964667,0.0001243522,0.0004111639,0.0012965,0.001020325,0.0006809572],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9955395,0.0004258732,0.0007679511,0.001763161,0.00107804,0.0004254842],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000139866,0.0001925306,0.0001209514,0.000137152,0.000414236,0.0005555929,0.004935562,0.0001961959,0.0004241238,0.9208407,0.01970949,0.0523336],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002007508,0.002337281,0.0002871714,0.002029242,0.0004713968,0.00007766041,0.03327322,0.0523927,0.004894248,0.1549941,0.7439049,0.003330537],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"other","genre_scores_codex":[0.005442467,0.0001608225,0.1093685,0.0009341187,0.0003308333,0.001335541,0.0005538827,0.0002221798,0.8816517],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.252912,0.001035249,0.02373052,0.00003073158,0.0001444545,4.563384e-7,0.0001551551,0.00006294334,0.7219285],"genre_candidate":"other","genre_consensus":"other","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7658466,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9996079,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07789640431154357,"score_gpt":0.3049738777149145,"score_spread":0.2270774734033709,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}