{"id":"W7114816884","doi":"10.48550/arxiv.2512.08106","title":"Beyond Revenue and Welfare: Counterfactual Analysis of Spectrum Auctions with Application to Canada's 3800MHz Allocation","year":2025,"lang":"","type":"preprint","venue":"arXiv (Cornell University)","topic":"Auction Theory and Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Counterfactual thinking; Common value auction; Bidding; Spectrum auction; Key (lock); Revenue; Mechanism design; Population","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01953568,0.0009726255,0.001330021,0.00157175,0.001255706,0.0032446,0.003194774,0.001505641,0.00362859],"category_scores_gemma":[0.05398628,0.0005330977,0.001687761,0.001853623,0.00330039,0.00205466,0.001430684,0.002766251,0.0001308549],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.01511111,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.009811035,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.3034003,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.2074883,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9947338,0.003739008,0.0001156988,0.000391876,0.0005295437,0.0004900333],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9391724,0.05114957,0.003275903,0.002862585,0.003008372,0.0005310989],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002569935,0.0002790969,0.007321445,0.00009276284,0.0001335354,0.0001310105,0.0001877685,0.8437878,0.0001552037,0.1406032,0.001415098,0.005636106],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00007064604,0.00004836958,0.001436772,0.00001294554,0.00003628807,0.00001345856,0.00008283182,0.9795811,0.0001072723,0.01804668,0.0005445125,0.0000191981],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7678737,0.001195063,0.1967648,0.00280737,0.0001662587,0.0009489309,0.001885471,0.0002586736,0.02809967],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9775754,0.0002244527,0.0193272,0.0001294309,0.00002426129,0.0002280123,0.0003903442,0.00002581212,0.002075059],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6965997,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6032687,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03384070431835241,"score_gpt":0.220594141896505,"score_spread":0.1867534375781526,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}