{"id":"W7115910708","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.5936314","title":"The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Spreads: A Comparative Study of Core and Peripheral Euro Area Economies","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Credit Risk and Financial Regulations","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Debt; Convergence (economics); Sovereign debt; Monetary policy; Core (optical fiber); Sovereignty; Financial integration; Quarter (Canadian coin)","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0008161869,0.0001787629,0.0004466286,0.001223041,0.000268046,0.002000789,0.0002782482,0.0004630668,0.002419539],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003333206,0.000163048,0.0002621728,0.002020535,0.0007173667,0.001521291,0.0006682465,0.0005841235,0.0001422421],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000420128,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002330325,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004537583,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003810314,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998767,0.00004038318,0.000009601886,0.00003108422,0.0000178415,0.00002422086],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9977884,0.001080155,0.0006240318,0.0001095347,0.0002163152,0.0001814933],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.003275368,0.0004855949,0.657811,0.0005228069,0.0007366883,0.002963903,0.007130731,0.07737694,0.01021136,0.1462622,0.004216484,0.08900709],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001146534,0.0002726177,0.9272921,0.0001218133,0.0002034867,0.0005331374,0.003916177,0.03505358,0.001265765,0.02705974,0.004125786,0.00004116756],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9963188,0.0007833235,0.0003092316,0.00009529269,0.000002125646,0.000002214675,0.00007607596,0.00000551705,0.002407369],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9991738,0.0003780894,0.00005632989,0.000006241656,0.000005094937,8.277682e-7,0.0000612515,0.000002018621,0.0003162411],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.004537583,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.009022355,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03300595092669661,"score_gpt":0.2601070310371658,"score_spread":0.2271010801104692,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}