{"id":"W7115950511","doi":"10.5281/zenodo.17964745","title":"FROM KURSK TO MARYINO: EVIDENCE FOR COORDINATED RUSSIAN LEADERSHIP TRANSITION FOLLOWING ELITE CONSENSUS A Systematic Analysis of Putin's Death or Incapacitation on November 20, 2024","year":2025,"lang":"","type":"article","venue":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","topic":"History, Medicine, and Leadership","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Elite; State (computer science); Power (physics); Politics; Circumstantial evidence; Insider; Transition (genetics); Grief","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01065588,0.0002217629,0.0003875258,0.003400291,0.001581167,0.001521403,0.000856404,0.0007512731,0.002767033],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03774825,0.0004050218,0.0004885093,0.004007131,0.001720386,0.001289574,0.004681371,0.001196598,0.0005566088],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001853589,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.003885611,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0167187,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.03917078,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9883454,0.006078636,0.001587591,0.001320383,0.001496825,0.001171245],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9539734,0.01434649,0.01915595,0.003655208,0.007388231,0.001480645],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004667744,0.000071691,0.9117103,0.002088722,0.0004138824,0.000419456,0.03784164,0.0001427814,0.0004961902,0.001622118,0.006293032,0.03843344],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002027549,0.0001439689,0.9443134,0.001833816,0.0001748591,0.0001201694,0.04150376,0.0001134558,0.0003480001,0.0003820621,0.01101522,0.00003095544],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9786808,0.00668752,0.0008060352,0.00222518,0.0001130743,0.0001810965,0.003715134,0.00001555709,0.007575673],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9952168,0.001470399,0.0003694737,0.0004314299,0.00003059949,0.0001922389,0.001558204,0.000009160381,0.0007216273],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.0167187,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05635434,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1629603907344514,"score_gpt":0.345271904542651,"score_spread":0.1823115138081996,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}