{"id":"W7116681908","doi":"10.1007/s00382-025-07984-2","title":"Seasonal variation of the fastest-growing initial errors over the tropical Indian Ocean","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Climate Dynamics","topic":"Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Northern British Columbia","funders":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","keywords":"Predictability; Thermocline; Sea surface temperature; Seasonality; Perturbation (astronomy); Advection; Tropical Atlantic; Ekman transport; Upwelling; Boreal","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005991294,0.0002329361,0.0001776296,0.0006529661,0.0004504156,0.0008552945,0.0002864155,0.0004074876,0.001687002],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003108126,0.0001846519,0.0003870466,0.0006885119,0.0003203047,0.0004151157,0.0005537196,0.0006118818,0.0002806197],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005105369,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006096811,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.05195959,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.06089154,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998499,0.00001662895,0.00001709478,0.00004389777,0.00002478472,0.00004772876],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9982954,0.0006639392,0.0001855557,0.0001430651,0.0005376792,0.0001743871],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0006958166,0.0001038164,0.8923743,0.0001473832,0.0002585028,0.000450247,0.0009617,0.0566094,0.01825086,0.001875231,0.004306737,0.02396603],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001060216,0.00002177666,0.9806467,0.00001471787,0.00002493391,0.00007581044,0.0002914324,0.01620172,0.001445131,0.0001429226,0.001101736,0.00002258042],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9966044,0.000117354,0.0003671006,0.0001727527,0.00003526313,0.000003226464,0.000972399,0.00005752022,0.001669898],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.998747,0.00005019314,0.0001646316,0.00001140338,0.000009942057,0.000001970887,0.0006824971,0.0000143572,0.0003179992],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.05195959,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1033143,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.00533166106629531,"score_gpt":0.214193896330226,"score_spread":0.2088622352639307,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}