{"id":"W7116746509","doi":"10.2196/preprints.89403","title":"The Calculus of Confidence: Modelling Vaccine Hesitancy and Strategies for Support (Preprint)","year":2025,"lang":"","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Vaccination; Logistic regression; Vaccine trial; Pandemic; Cohort; Public health; Herd immunity; Influenza vaccine","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.006008598,0.0006570873,0.0007640718,0.001248515,0.001120253,0.004774033,0.001745016,0.002909752,0.01833441],"category_scores_gemma":[0.06393352,0.0005792781,0.001327504,0.001196474,0.002384499,0.003777205,0.002709235,0.002697637,0.00100728],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003272075,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002493667,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02157195,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.007709552,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9974769,0.001606791,0.00007438153,0.0003179842,0.000161528,0.0003623911],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9666169,0.02826267,0.002124672,0.0007748344,0.0009177496,0.001303054],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004618802,0.0005608366,0.05811417,0.0002227851,0.0002259885,0.0006246089,0.003302308,0.4746924,0.0003032127,0.3966483,0.01108886,0.05375455],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00005792872,0.0001287507,0.005519227,0.00007835708,0.00004912476,0.0000722934,0.0008670175,0.8653148,0.00005365784,0.1242644,0.00355478,0.00003980225],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7253729,0.001867369,0.1798308,0.020148,0.0003631406,0.0005096217,0.002062605,0.0003829632,0.06946269],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9797652,0.0003637135,0.01286162,0.0002903715,0.000065513,0.0002895996,0.000234139,0.00004569925,0.006084054],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02157195,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06133473,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02183784764646962,"score_gpt":0.3149936958660832,"score_spread":0.2931558482196136,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}