{"id":"W7116797863","doi":"10.20944/preprints202512.1761.v1","title":"An Agent‐Based Model of Youth Nonmedical Prescription Opioid Use in Ontario: Forecast Validation and Future Projection","year":2025,"lang":"","type":"preprint","venue":"Preprints.org","topic":"Opioid Use Disorder Treatment","field":"Medicine","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Psychological intervention; Medical prescription; Projection (relational algebra); Baseline (sea); Closure (psychology); Window of opportunity; Opioid overdose; Public health","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006390577,0.0006141695,0.0005860126,0.0005029083,0.0008338872,0.001065831,0.001144235,0.001136138,0.002809883],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002156785,0.0004392852,0.0006238216,0.0005276014,0.000722377,0.0004893174,0.0006800324,0.0007632959,0.000176627],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.007456273,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00845283,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.8313571,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.6790946,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998007,0.00005044511,0.000009670453,0.00003642713,0.00003715055,0.00006552107],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991317,0.0003756961,0.00009725099,0.00002357679,0.000279163,0.00009249335],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000411202,0.00001527278,0.005075503,0.0000134496,0.00001067672,0.00004873988,0.00003544833,0.9921038,0.0000795155,0.001333582,0.0004059432,0.0008368756],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002213556,0.00001213654,0.001429434,0.000003896419,0.000007672361,0.000002685299,0.00004278757,0.997758,0.00002893791,0.0002910434,0.0003952084,0.000006123156],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9441987,0.0002991291,0.02724416,0.001857876,0.0000932355,0.0001624408,0.00467584,0.0001823968,0.0212863],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.992316,0.000138129,0.002876955,0.00004375337,0.00001100591,0.00006837156,0.001025976,0.000007667931,0.00351212],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1686429,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3392722,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1378939801408274,"score_gpt":0.3380459860836537,"score_spread":0.2001520059428263,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}