{"id":"W7116916970","doi":"10.64898/2025.12.21.25342784","title":"The Calculus of Confidence: Modelling Vaccine Hesitancy and Strategies for Support","year":2025,"lang":"","type":"article","venue":"medRxiv","topic":"Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia; Public Health Ontario; Hospital for Sick Children; University of Toronto; SickKids Foundation; Children's Hospital Research Institute of Manitoba; University of Manitoba; Simon Fraser University","funders":"Genome British Columbia; Provincial Health Services Authority; BC Children's Hospital; Children's Hospital Foundation; Canadian Institutes of Health Research; Genome Canada","keywords":"Vaccination; Logistic regression; Vaccine trial; Pandemic; Cohort; Public health; Herd immunity; Influenza vaccine","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.008134164,0.0008422289,0.0008943062,0.001575158,0.001457498,0.005208802,0.0021698,0.00314689,0.0141887],"category_scores_gemma":[0.07151695,0.0006164458,0.001152836,0.001291223,0.003645881,0.00432083,0.003555111,0.003044435,0.0006613397],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003762279,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002396919,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01438298,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.005219356,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9958496,0.002674406,0.0001213246,0.0004915895,0.000241482,0.0006215527],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9582871,0.03387932,0.003331051,0.001394287,0.001125916,0.00198242],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0009461959,0.00110744,0.1046492,0.0002804659,0.0002759537,0.001002597,0.005840236,0.4740652,0.0004504937,0.3410209,0.005836319,0.06452498],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001009119,0.0002276173,0.006679726,0.00008018607,0.00006711589,0.0001037969,0.001578286,0.8786016,0.00009004169,0.1098008,0.002622648,0.00004737647],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8457507,0.0009799344,0.09830392,0.01107971,0.0001515917,0.0004067417,0.0007980908,0.0002053267,0.04232385],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9928926,0.0001346575,0.004929351,0.0001190996,0.00002573529,0.0001303719,0.00008724896,0.00001255753,0.001668445],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01438298,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04746598,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02420512414516204,"score_gpt":0.3126796754318082,"score_spread":0.2884745512866461,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}