{"id":"W7117291044","doi":"10.3390/jrfm19010020","title":"Beyond Volatility Decay: Correcting Relative Expected Return Estimates for Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of risk and financial management","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Volatility (finance); Portfolio; Index (typography); Rate of return; Rate of return on a portfolio; Expected return; Stock market index","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00996696,0.0007128225,0.0005276798,0.001653505,0.0003357337,0.00214195,0.0007852198,0.0007824755,0.0008579231],"category_scores_gemma":[0.08905926,0.00024908,0.0004240193,0.001143562,0.0004438351,0.001966451,0.001046416,0.001428861,0.0004416761],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006151874,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00108043,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.007169466,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.005138687,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9971359,0.001237497,0.0002745689,0.0005535064,0.0006426757,0.0001557768],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9726956,0.01578296,0.004093743,0.004121564,0.002963381,0.0003427408],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0009852558,0.0001249199,0.3791181,0.0001902582,0.0007783263,0.0003465101,0.0005602248,0.1565389,0.005944653,0.01090651,0.005718141,0.4387882],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001001858,0.0003822615,0.1138919,0.0002188262,0.0001947792,0.0005738386,0.0004053166,0.8382993,0.02202109,0.01588381,0.007862826,0.0001658419],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6933489,0.002544216,0.2961355,0.001078471,0.000362158,0.00007906203,0.001033769,0.002082782,0.003335047],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9570274,0.0002584052,0.04079203,0.0001078634,0.00008473278,0.00001843189,0.0007626954,0.0001357142,0.0008126302],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.00996696,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05271095,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02214493465186027,"score_gpt":0.2315598278624457,"score_spread":0.2094148932105855,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}