{"id":"W7132871872","doi":"","title":"Climate Risk Modeling and Quarterly Sales Forecasting for North American Retail Companies","year":2023,"lang":"","type":"dissertation","venue":"TSpace","topic":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"Royal Bank of Canada","keywords":"Revenue; Extreme weather; Sales management; Investment (military); Sales forecasting; Retail sales; Climate change; Autoregressive integrated moving average","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005260527,0.0003344147,0.0002634774,0.0007028911,0.0003695525,0.000926764,0.0003275643,0.0003607322,0.001282864],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001983981,0.0001901736,0.0003189447,0.001307811,0.0001162958,0.0006881715,0.0002343353,0.0005877572,0.0001948451],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006590833,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005484664,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.05701924,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.07275891,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998507,0.00004514655,0.000008474844,0.00004114707,0.00003619693,0.0000181902],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9994753,0.0002930731,0.0000798121,0.00003382346,0.00009280334,0.00002512458],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002582094,0.0003652039,0.3041957,0.00007833722,0.0001681233,0.0002206199,0.0006729846,0.4966736,0.002435345,0.005021772,0.006374237,0.1835359],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000007827534,0.00003445755,0.07241888,0.00001338507,0.00002422607,0.00002462967,0.0003881149,0.9216485,0.0006478613,0.002837086,0.001936569,0.0000185019],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9670639,0.0005367232,0.02409374,0.0008472958,0.00004444292,0.00002193795,0.0005927668,0.0001711371,0.006628093],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.986284,0.0004671254,0.01106172,0.0000320201,0.00003523928,0.00001396622,0.0006450564,0.00001788238,0.001442987],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.05701924,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1133747,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1745245924982179,"score_gpt":0.4192290101858205,"score_spread":0.2447044176876026,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}