{"id":"W7132871872","doi":"","title":"Climate Risk Modeling and Quarterly Sales Forecasting for North American Retail Companies","year":2023,"lang":"","type":"dissertation","venue":"TSpace","topic":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"Royal Bank of Canada","keywords":"Revenue; Extreme weather; Sales management; Investment (military); Sales forecasting; Retail sales; Climate change; Autoregressive integrated moving average","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","sts"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002209417,0.0006959747,0.001160024,0.0005643523,0.002011559,0.0009068857,0.0009213585,0.0002074333,0.00001766627],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001422479,0.0006481181,0.0003712767,0.00184324,0.0003645038,0.0002354591,0.0001413143,0.0005923508,0.00009777029],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00006165641,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00012876,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002004168,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01448486,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9948543,0.00016195,0.001502985,0.00159722,0.0009029119,0.000980666],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9929638,0.002745996,0.002139808,0.0009318023,0.0009382783,0.0002803457],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005376684,0.0001112783,0.009810835,0.0004635065,0.0001360689,0.000005860405,0.06019786,0.01165829,0.00008846404,0.001175698,0.001470471,0.914344],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002593546,0.0007064863,0.003142864,0.0003146643,0.0002169724,0.000007244068,0.0859926,0.9039106,0.00002306349,0.004037895,0.0007064049,0.0006818894],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9471327,0.0002287037,0.04920819,0.0002934521,0.0002959039,0.001502053,0.0005835096,0.0004804037,0.0002750855],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9495018,0.001042544,0.04584173,0.00002472764,0.0002072281,0.0005727616,0.0009477098,0.0001596126,0.001701957],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9136621,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.999597,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1745245924982179,"score_gpt":0.4192290101858205,"score_spread":0.2447044176876026,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}