{"id":"W7162324181","doi":"10.3997/2214-4609.2025101361","title":"Ensemble Production Forecasting Using FPCA-ARIMA: Application to Wells in the Canadian Duvernay Formation","year":2025,"lang":"","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods","field":"Engineering","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Calgary","funders":"","keywords":"Production (economics); Demand forecasting; Field (mathematics); Work (physics)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005841979,0.0005392776,0.0003797573,0.0006138755,0.0006790277,0.0006090991,0.000567254,0.0003572197,0.0004825476],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001272763,0.0001943778,0.0003481164,0.0008329835,0.0002402884,0.0002984028,0.0003808946,0.0004892915,0.00005895563],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002924516,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.003597533,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.8484173,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.8312016,"domain_scores_codex":[0.999816,0.00002705352,0.000008890769,0.00003929707,0.00007218538,0.00003652095],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9995593,0.000135935,0.00003366456,0.00003692036,0.0001983148,0.00003573676],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00008765995,0.00006172238,0.03604408,0.00002397043,0.00006878291,0.0001561936,0.00009778429,0.9183112,0.002138937,0.0004128081,0.0008904154,0.04170634],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000004609708,0.000009430702,0.00901759,0.000001899411,0.000006551423,0.000007781506,0.00003810764,0.9900165,0.0005370665,0.0000869677,0.0002633636,0.00001000861],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9803846,0.0001847123,0.01617448,0.000169372,0.00002186,0.0000291971,0.0006358555,0.0004545069,0.001945387],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9927104,0.00005113046,0.006568219,0.000007045733,0.000003713095,0.000007322169,0.0002486996,0.00001070956,0.0003928342],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1515827,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3049508,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03875804314987005,"score_gpt":0.2916312864430015,"score_spread":0.2528732432931314,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}