Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics
Pourquoi ce travail est-il dans la base ?
Une base qui oublie comment elle a trouvé un travail ne peut pas être vérifiée. Voici les voies qui ont admis celui-ci.
Aucune affiliation canadienne. Une base fondée sur la seule affiliation (le devis habituel) n'aurait jamais vu ce travail. C'est l'un des travaux qui justifient l'inversion de la base.
Résumé
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown a markedly low proportion of cases among children1–4. Age disparities in observed cases could be explained by children having lower susceptibility to infection, lower propensity to show clinical symptoms or both. We evaluate these possibilities by fitting an age-structured mathematical model to epidemic data from China, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Canada and South Korea. We estimate that susceptibility to infection in individuals under 20 years of age is approximately half that of adults aged over 20 years, and that clinical symptoms manifest in 21% (95% credible interval: 12–31%) of infections in 10- to 19-year-olds, rising to 69% (57–82%) of infections in people aged over 70 years. Accordingly, we find that interventions aimed at children might have a relatively small impact on reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, particularly if the transmissibility of subclinical infections is low. Our age-specific clinical fraction and susceptibility estimates have implications for the expected global burden of COVID-19, as a result of demographic differences across settings. In countries with younger population structures—such as many low-income countries—the expected per capita incidence of clinical cases would be lower than in countries with older population structures, although it is likely that comorbidities in low-income countries will also influence disease severity. Without effective control measures, regions with relatively older populations could see disproportionally more cases of COVID-19, particularly in the later stages of an unmitigated epidemic. A new epidemiological study shows reduced susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 and decreased risk of developing severe symptoms in people aged younger than 20 years, suggesting that children have limited contribution to spread of COVID-19.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
La notice
- Revue
- Nature Medicine
- Thématique
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Domaine
- Mathematics
- Établissements canadiens
- —
- Organismes subventionnaires
- Economic and Social Research CouncilNational Institutes of HealthResearch Councils UKMedical Research CouncilRoyal SocietyGovernment of the United KingdomDepartment of Health and Social CareWellcome TrustNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchBill and Melinda Gates Foundation
- Mots-clés
- DemographyMedicineEpidemiologySubclinical infectionPandemicTransmission (telecommunications)PopulationPsychological interventionCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Per capitaIncidence (geometry)Environmental healthDiseaseInfectious disease (medical specialty)Internal medicine
- Résumé présent dans OpenAlex
- oui