RETRACTED: Dynamic Prediction of Outcomes for Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis
Pourquoi ce travail est-il dans la base ?
Une base qui oublie comment elle a trouvé un travail ne peut pas être vérifiée. Voici les voies qui ont admis celui-ci.
Dossier post-publication
- Nature
- Retraction
- Motif
- Error in Analyses;Error in Results and/or Conclusions;Upgrade/Update of Prior Notice(s);
- Date
- 11/2/2023 0:00
- Signalé par OpenAlex ?
- Oui
Source : Retraction Watch, jointe par DOI. OpenAlex consigne la rétractation dans is_retracted, un booléen sur un espace d'états à au moins quatre valeurs ; il ne peut donc exprimer ni une expression de préoccupation, ni une correction, ni un rétablissement, et les rapporte comme false, ce qui se lit comme « rien à signaler ».
Résumé
Importance: Leveraging the dynamic nature of clinical variables in the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) population has the potential to significantly improve the performance of outcome prediction models. Objective: To improve performance of prediction models and elucidate dynamic clinical profiles using joint modeling to predict conversion to psychosis and symptom remission. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data were collected as part of the third wave of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS 3), which is a 9-site prospective longitudinal study. Participants were individuals aged 12 to 30 years who met criteria for a psychosis-risk syndrome. Clinical, neurocognitive, and demographic variables were collected at baseline and at multiple follow-up visits, beginning at 2 months and up to 24 months. An initial feature selection process identified longitudinal clinical variables that showed differential change for each outcome group across 2 months. With these variables, a joint modeling framework was used to estimate the likelihood of eventual outcomes. Models were developed and tested in a 10-fold cross-validation framework. Clinical data were collected between February 2015 and November 2018, and data were analyzed from February 2022 to December 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prediction models were built to predict conversion to psychosis and symptom remission. Participants met criteria for conversion if their positive symptoms reached the fully psychotic range and for symptom remission if they were subprodromal on the Scale of Psychosis-Risk Symptoms for a duration of 6 months or more. Results: Of 488 included NAPLS 3 participants, 232 (47.5%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 18.2 (3.4) years. Joint models achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting conversion (balanced accuracy [BAC], 0.91) and remission (BAC, 0.99) compared with baseline models (conversion: BAC, 0.65; remission: BAC, 0.60). Clinical variables that showed differential change between outcome groups across a 2-month span, including measures of symptom severity and aspects of functioning, were also identified. Further, intra-individual risks for each outcome were more negatively correlated when using joint models (r = -0.92; P < .001) compared with baseline models (r = -0.50; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, joint models significantly outperformed baseline models in predicting both conversion and remission, demonstrating that monitoring short-term clinical change may help to parse heterogeneous dynamic clinical trajectories in a CHR-P population. These findings could inform additional study of targeted treatment selection and could move the field closer to clinical implementation of prediction models.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
La notice
- Revue
- JAMA Psychiatry
- Thématique
- Schizophrenia research and treatment
- Domaine
- Medicine
- Établissements canadiens
- Hotchkiss Brain InstituteUniversity of Calgary
- Organismes subventionnaires
- National Center for Advancing Translational SciencesNational Institute of Mental Health
- Mots-clés
- ProdromeNeurocognitivePsychosisPopulationSchizophrenia (object-oriented programming)PsychologyLongitudinal studyMedicinePsychiatryClinical psychologyCognition
- Résumé présent dans OpenAlex
- oui