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Record W117603095

Context-driven predictions

2007· article· en· W117603095 on OpenAlexaff
Marc G. Bellemare, Doina Precup

Bibliographic record

VenueInternational Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence · 2007
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldComputer Science
TopicBayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
Canadian institutionsMcGill University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsObservableComputer sciencePartially observable Markov decision processContext (archaeology)Markov modelMarkov processMarkov decision processHidden Markov modelSimple (philosophy)Markov chainAbstractionHidden semi-Markov modelContext modelMaximum-entropy Markov modelArtificial intelligenceTheoretical computer scienceVariable-order Markov modelMachine learningAlgorithmMathematics
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Markov models have been a keystone in Artificial Intelligence for many decades. However, they remain unsatisfactory when the environment modelled is partially observable. There are pathological examples where no history of fixed length is sufficient for accurate prediction or decision making. On the other hand, working with a hidden state (like in Hidden Markov Models or Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes) has a high computational cost. In order to circumvent this problem, we suggest the use of a context-based model. Our approach replaces strict transition probabilities by influences on transitions. The method proposed provides a trade-off between a fully and partially observable model. We also discuss the capacity of our framework to model hierarchical knowledge and abstraction. Simple examples are given in order to show the advantages of the algorithm.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.013
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.009
Threshold uncertainty score0.030

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.013
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0020.003
Open science0.0020.002
Research integrity0.0020.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0090.002

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.134
GPT teacher head0.336
Teacher spread0.202 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2007
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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