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Record W117603095

Context-driven predictions

2007· article· en· W117603095 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueInternational Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence · 2007
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldComputer Science
TopicBayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
Canadian institutionsMcGill University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsObservableComputer sciencePartially observable Markov decision processContext (archaeology)Markov modelMarkov processMarkov decision processHidden Markov modelSimple (philosophy)Markov chainAbstractionHidden semi-Markov modelContext modelMaximum-entropy Markov modelArtificial intelligenceTheoretical computer scienceVariable-order Markov modelMachine learningAlgorithmMathematics
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Markov models have been a keystone in Artificial Intelligence for many decades. However, they remain unsatisfactory when the environment modelled is partially observable. There are pathological examples where no history of fixed length is sufficient for accurate prediction or decision making. On the other hand, working with a hidden state (like in Hidden Markov Models or Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes) has a high computational cost. In order to circumvent this problem, we suggest the use of a context-based model. Our approach replaces strict transition probabilities by influences on transitions. The method proposed provides a trade-off between a fully and partially observable model. We also discuss the capacity of our framework to model hierarchical knowledge and abstraction. Simple examples are given in order to show the advantages of the algorithm.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.981
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.134
GPT teacher head0.336
Teacher spread0.202 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it