Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Among the greatest uncertainties in future energy supply is the amount of oil and gas yet to be found in the Arctic. Using a probabilistic geology-based methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey has assessed the area north of the Arctic Circle. The Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA) consists of three parts:Mapping the sedimentary sequences of the Arctic (Grantz and others 2009),Geologically based estimation of undiscovered technically recoverable petroleum (Gautier and others 2009, discussed in this presentation) andEconomic appraisal of the cost of delivering the undiscovered resources to major markets (also reported at this conference by White and others). We estimate that about 30% of the world's undiscovered gas and about 13% of the world's undiscovered oil may be present in the Arctic, mostly offshore under less than 500m of water. Billion BOE-plus accumulations of gas and oil are predicted at a 50% probability in the Kara Sea, Barents Sea, offshore East and West Greenland, Canada, and Alaska. On a BOE basis, undiscovered natural gas is three times more abundant than oil in the Arctic and is concentrated in Russian territory. Oil resources, while critically important to the interests of Arctic countries, are probably not sufficient to significantly shift the current geographic patterns of world oil production. Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has completed an assessment of the yet-to-find, technically recoverable petroleum in the Arctic. The Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA) provides probabilistic estimates of the numbers, sizes, and aggregate volumes of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in undiscovered accumulations (Gautier et al. 2009). Most discoveries will probably be made on the continental shelves, under less than 500 meters of water. The CARA is a geologically study of the potential for new discoveries of conventional oil and/or gas in accumulations larger than 50 million barrels of oil or 300 billion cubic feet of natural gas north of the Arctic Circle. So-called unconventional resources such as coal bed methane, heavy oil and bitumen, and gas hydrates were not included in the study. Before the assessment could be conducted, it was necessary to compile a consistent map of the sedimentary basins of the Arctic, delineated according to geologic age, tectonic history, thickness of sedimentary strata, and structural style (Grantz et al. 2009). Using the new map, the Arctic was subdivided into 69 geologically defined subsets called Assessment Units (AUs); the AU boundaries are available as digital shape files online (USGS 2009).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.007 | 0.009 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.015 | 0.005 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".