A Dynamic Model of Adoption and Improvement for Open Source Business Applications
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This chapter develops a model of open source disruption in enterprise software markets. It addresses the question: Is free and open source software (FOSS) likely to disrupt markets for enterprise business applications? The conventional wisdom is that open source provision works best for low-level systemoriented technologies while large, complex enterprise business applications are best provided by commercial software vendors. The authors challenge the conventional wisdom by developing a two-stage model of open source disruption in business application markets that emphasizes a virtuous cycle of adoption and lead-user improvement of the software. The two stages are an initial incubation stage (the I-Stage) and a subsequent snowball stage (the S-Stage). Case studies of several FOSS projects demonstrate the model’s ex post predictive value. The authors then apply the model to SugarCRM, an emerging open source CRM application, to make ex ante predictions regarding its potential to disrupt commercial CRM incumbents.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.017 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.038 |
| Open science | 0.009 | 0.017 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it