AUC: a statistically consistent and more discriminating measure than accuracy
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Predictive accuracy has been used as the main and often only evaluation criterion for the predictive performance of classification learning algorithms. In recent years, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) curve, or simply AUC, has been proposed as an alternative single-number measure for evaluating learning algorithms. In this paper, we prove that AUC is a better measure than accuracy. More specifically, we present rigourous definitions on consistency and discriminancy in comparing two evaluation measures for learning algorithms. We then present empirical evaluations and a formal proof to establish that AUC is indeed statistically consistent and more discriminating than accuracy. Our result is quite significant since we formally prove that, for the first time, AUC is a better measure than accuracy in the evaluation of learning algorithms.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it