Real-time failure prediction in online services
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Current data mining techniques used to create failure predictors for online services require massive amounts of data to build, train, and test the predictors. These operations are tedious, time consuming, and are not done in real-time. Also, the accuracy of the resulting predictor is highly compromised by changes that affect the environment and working conditions of the predictor. We propose a new approach to creating a dynamic failure predictor for online services in real-time and keeping its accuracy high during the services run-time changes. We use synthetic transactions during the run-time lifecycle to generate current data about the service. This data is used in its ephemeral state to build, train, test, and maintain an up-to-date failure predictor. We implemented the proposed approach in a large-scale online ad service that processes billions of requests each month in six data centers distributed in three continents. We show that the proposed predictor is able to maintain failure prediction accuracy as high as 86% during online service changes, whereas the accuracy of the state-of-the-art predictors may drop to less than 10%.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it