A systematic review of validated methods for identifying atrial fibrillation using administrative data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: The objectives of this study were to characterize the validity of algorithms to identify AF from electronic health data through a systematic review of the literature and to identify gaps needing further research. METHODS: Two reviewers examined publications during 1997-2008 that identified patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) from electronic health data and provided validation information. We abstracted information including algorithm sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV). RESULTS: We reviewed 544 abstracts and 281 full-text articles, of which 18 provided validation information from 16 unique studies. Most used data from before 2000, and 10 of 16 used only inpatient data. Three studies incorporated electronic ECG data for case identification or validation. A large proportion of prevalent AF cases identified by ICD-9 code 427.31 were valid (PPV 70%-96%, median 89%). Seven studies reported algorithm sensitivity (range, 57%-95%, median 79%). One study validated an algorithm for incident AF and reported a PPV of 77%. CONCLUSIONS: The ICD-9 code 427.31 performed relatively well, but conclusions about algorithm validity are hindered by few recent data, use of nonrepresentative populations, and a disproportionate focus on inpatient data. An optimal contemporary algorithm would likely draw on inpatient and outpatient codes and electronic ECG data. Additional research is needed in representative, contemporary populations regarding algorithms that identify incident AF and incorporate electronic ECG data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.079 | 0.335 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.009 | 0.011 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.027 | 0.019 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".