Return‐Implied Volatility Dynamics of High and Low Yielding Currencies
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study investigates the return‐implied volatility dynamics of six most actively traded currencies before and during the financial crisis using quantile regression analysis. In particular, we examine how the size and sign of high and low yielding currency futures returns influence implied volatilities in the currency market. It is found that, especially during a volatile period, the behavior of the return‐implied volatility relationship of high yielding currencies, such as the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and British pound, has some similarities with that in the stock markets, while low yielding currencies behave the opposite way. Investment currencies generally exhibit a negative asymmetry, while funding currencies, the Japanese yen in particular, exhibit a positive asymmetry. The results of the study appear consistent with the recent carry trade literature implying that carry trades, investors' behavior, risk exposure, and global risk explain return‐implied volatility dynamics in the currency markets. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 35:1026–1041, 2015
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it