Extremismo, moderación y gobernanza democrática en el posconflicto: las FARC-EP y el FMLN desde una perspectiva comparada
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
RESUMEN: ¿Por qué el FMLN y el gobierno salvadoreño, luego de doce años de guerra, lograron negociar un acuerdo de paz en menos de dos años mientras que las FARC-EP y el gobierno colombiano no han ni siquiera podido consolidar un cese del fuego en cuarenta y seis años de guerra? Se demuestra que el carácter extremista o moderado de los beligerantes es parte esencial de la respuesta a esta pregunta. La aversión a la incertidumbre política incita a moderados como el FMLN a negociar pactos que establecen instituciones propias a las democracias liberales. Éstas permiten una gestión pacífica de conflictos y fortalecen la gobernanza en el posconflicto. Entre tanto, la insensibilidad a la incertidumbre, la incapacidad a cuestionar la validez de la estrategia armada y la definición de supervivencia como acceso permanente al poder explican por qué extremistas como las FARC-EP tienden a exigir soluciones consociativas para deponer las armas, con lo cual se erigen obstáculos a la gobernanza en el posconflicto. El análisis de las relaciones de fuerza entre estos dos tipos de actores (antes de iniciar una negociación de paz) es fundamental para todo experto que busca identificar posibles obstáculos a la sostenibilidad de la paz y a la gobernanza en el posconflicto antes del inicio de una transición a partir de un marco de conflicto armado interno. ABSTRACT: Why is it that the FMLN and the Salvadorian government, after twelve years of Civil War, succeeded in negotiating a peace accord in less than two years while the FARC-EP and the Colombian government are unable to consolidate a cease-fire after forty-six years of internal armed conflict? It’s argued that the belligerents extremism or moderation is a key to the answer. Aversion to political uncertainty acts as an incentive for «moderated guerrillas» (such as the FMLN), which are willing to negotiate pacts establishing liberal democratic institutions, capable of peacefully managing social conflicts, and strengthening post-conflict governance. Insensitivity to political uncertainty, the incapacity to change strategies, and the definition of «survival» as a permanent access to the decision-making processes explain why «extremist guerrillas» (such as the FARC-EP) have a tendency to seek power-sharing arrangements, which soon become an obstacle to post-conflict governance. Conflict resolution scholars and «custodians of peace» should consider the analysis of the balance of power between extremist and moderated actors (before the beginning of a peace negotiation process) as a fundamental step when identifying the obstacles to sustainable peace and post-conflict governance.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it