Pricing Standardized Mortality Securitizations: A Two‐Population Model With Transitory Jump Effects
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
A bstract Mortality dynamics are subject to jumps that are due to events such as wars and pandemics. Such jumps can have a significant impact on prices of securities that are designed for hedging catastrophic mortality risk, and therefore should be taken into account in modeling. Although several single‐population mortality models with jump effects have been developed, they are not adequate for modeling trades in which the hedger's population is different from the population associated with the security being traded. In this article, we first develop a two‐population mortality model with transitory jump effects, and then we use the proposed model and an economic‐pricing framework to examine how mortality jumps may affect the supply and demand of mortality‐linked securities.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it