El Niño's tropical climate and teleconnections as a blueprint for pre‐Ice Age climates
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
At ∼2.7 million years ago the warm equable climates of early and “middle” Pliocene time (used here to mean from ∼5 to ∼2.7 Ma) were replaced by recurring ice ages. Most attempts to explain the change appeal either to changes in CO 2 in the atmosphere or reduced heat transport by the Atlantic Ocean. The sources of the strongest teleconnections in the current climate, however, lie in the tropics, and such connections occur by transport of heat and moisture by the atmosphere. The most prominent of these teleconnections link aberrations in sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations, with warm and dry or cool and wet anomalies in extratropical climates. We show that in most cases early and middle Pliocene climate both in equatorial regions and in the extratropics differ from present‐day climates with the same spatial pattern as that associated with ENSO. For instance, not only was Canada warmer during early Pliocene time than at present, as it is during El Niño, but the region surrounding the Gulf of Mexico appears to have been cooler and a bit wetter, as it commonly is during El Niño. A virtually permanent El Niño‐like state appears to have characterized pre‐Ice Age climates, suggesting that transport of heat by the atmosphere was the principal mechanism that maintained extratropical warmth. Accordingly, cooling and the growth of recurring ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere resulted from the development of a strong Walker circulation and a weakening of the Hadley circulation.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it