Testing for Cointegration between House Prices and Economic Fundamentals
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Economic theory predicts three possibilities for the cointegration relationship between house prices and economic fundamentals: linear cointegration, nonlinear cointegration and no cointegration. In contrast, the empirical literature has only examined linear cointegration. This article argues that ignoring nonlinear cointegration may lead to misleading conclusions that no cointegration exists between house prices and the fundamentals. To illustrate this point, I test for cointegration for ten U.S. cities and find that only one city shows evidence of linear cointegration. Further analysis using the two‐step testing procedure yields evidence of nonlinear cointegration for six other cities. Still, there are three cities left out without evidence of nonlinear cointegration. Further studies are needed to test for other forms of nonlinear cointegration before a conclusion of no cointegration can be reached for the remaining three cities.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it