External validation of a prognostic CT-based radiomic signature in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is one of the fastest growing disease sites of head and neck cancers. A recently described radiomic signature, based exclusively on pre-treatment computed tomography (CT) imaging of the primary tumor volume, was found to be prognostic in independent cohorts of lung and head and neck cancer patients treated in the Netherlands. Here, we further validate this signature in a large and independent North American cohort of OPSCC patients, also considering CT artifacts. METHODS: A total of 542 OPSCC patients were included for which we determined the prognostic index (PI) of the radiomic signature. We tested the signature model fit in a Cox regression and assessed model discrimination with Harrell's c-index. Kaplan-Meier survival curves between high and low signature predictions were compared with a log-rank test. Validation was performed in the complete cohort (PMH1) and in the subset of patients without (PMH2) and with (PMH3) visible CT artifacts within the delineated tumor region. RESULTS: We identified 267 (49%) patients without and 275 (51%) with visible CT artifacts. The calibration slope (β) on the PI in a Cox proportional hazards model was 1.27 (H0: β = 1, p = 0.152) in the PMH1 (n = 542), 0.855 (H0: β = 1, p = 0.524) in the PMH2 (n = 267) and 1.99 (H0: β = 1, p = 0.002) in the PMH3 (n = 275) cohort. Harrell's c-index was 0.628 (p = 2.72e-9), 0.634 (p = 2.7e-6) and 0.647 (p = 5.35e-6) for the PMH1, PMH2 and PMH3 cohort, respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were significantly different (p < 0.05) between high and low radiomic signature model predictions for all cohorts. CONCLUSION: Overall, the signature validated well using all CT images as-is, demonstrating a good model fit and preservation of discrimination. Even though CT artifacts were shown to be of influence, the signature had significant prognostic power regardless if patients with CT artifacts were included.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".