Apparent annual survival of staging ruffs during a period of population decline: insights from sex and site‐use related differences
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The ruff Philomachus pugnax , a lekking shorebird wintering in Africa and breeding across northern Eurasia, declined severely in its western range. Based on a capture‐mark‐resighting programme (2004–2011) in the westernmost staging area in Friesland (the Netherlands), we investigated changes in apparent annual survival in relation to age and sex to explore potential causes of decline. We also related temporal variation in apparent survival to environmental factors. We used the Capture‐Mark‐Recapture multievent statistical framework to overcome biases in survival estimates after testing for hidden heterogeneity of detection. This enabled the estimation of the probability to belong to high or low detectability classes. Apparent survival varied between years but was not related to weather patterns along the flyway, or to flood levels in the Sahel. Over time, a decline in apparent survival is suggested. Due to a short data series and flag loss in the last period this cannot be verified. Nevertheless, the patterns in sex‐specific detectability and survival lead to new biological insights. Among highly detectable birds, supposedly most reliant on Friesland, males survived better than females ( = 0.74, range 0.51–0.93; = 0.51, range 0.24–0.81). Among low detectable birds, the pattern is reversed ( = 0.64, range 0.37–0.89; = 0.73, range 0.48–0.93). Probably the staging population contains a mixture of sex‐specific migration strategies. A loss of staging females could greatly affect the dynamics of the western ruff population. Further unravelling of these population processes requires geographically extended demographic monitoring and the use of tracking devices.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".