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Compound Poisson Model with Covariates

2006· article· en· W1905468391 on OpenAlexafffundabout
Jeffrey Pai, Kevin J. Shand, Xikui Wang

Bibliographic record

VenueNorth American Actuarial Journal · 2006
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicStatistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Manitoba
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
KeywordsCovariatePoisson distributionActuarial scienceEconometricsPoisson regressionCount dataAggregate dataPopulationRandom effects modelAggregate (composite)Product (mathematics)EconomicsStatisticsDemographyMathematicsMedicine

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Pet insurance in North America continues to be a growing industry. Unlike in Europe, where some countries have as much as 50% of the pet population insured, very few pets in North America are insured. Pricing practices in the past have relied on market share objectives more so than on actual experience. Pricing still continues to be performed on this basis with little consideration for actuarial principles and techniques. Developments of mortality and morbidity models to be used in the pricing model and new product development are essential for pet insurance. This paper examines insurance claims as experienced in the Canadian market. The time-to-event data are investigated using the Cox’s proportional hazards model. The claim number follows a nonhomogenous Poisson process with covariates. The claim size random variable is assumed to follow a lognormal distribution. These two models work well for aggregate claims with covariates. The first three central moments of the aggregate claims for one insured animal, as well as for a block of insured animals, are derived. We illustrate the models using data collected over an eight-year period.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.014
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.031
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.020
Threshold uncertainty score0.073

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0140.031
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0020.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0040.002
Bibliometrics0.0030.004
Science and technology studies0.0010.002
Scholarly communication0.0040.003
Open science0.0060.002
Research integrity0.0050.004
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0170.003

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.030
GPT teacher head0.320
Teacher spread0.290 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations4
Published2006
Admission routes3
Has abstractyes

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