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Record W1916685456 · doi:10.1007/s00415-015-7842-0

High incidence and increasing prevalence of multiple sclerosis in British Columbia, Canada: findings from over two decades (1991–2010)

2015· article· en· W1916685456 on OpenAlexafffundabout
Elaine Kingwell, Feng Zhu, Ruth Ann Marrie, John D. Fisk, Christina Wolfson, Sharon Warren, Joanne Profetto‐McGrath, Lawrence W. Svenson, Nathalie Jetté, Virender Bhan, B. Nancy Yu, Lawrence Elliott, Helen Tremlett

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Neurology · 2015
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicMultiple Sclerosis Research Studies
Canadian institutionsGovernment of AlbertaUniversity of AlbertaMcGill UniversityAlberta HealthUniversity of ManitobaDalhousie UniversityUniversity of British Columbia Hospital
FundersCanadian Institutes of Health ResearchCumming School of Medicine, University of CalgaryEMD SeronoEndeavour FoundationAlberta InnovatesPublic Health AgencyMultiple Sclerosis Society of CanadaMcGill University Health CentreMcGill UniversityPublic Health Agency of CanadaMultiple Sclerosis SocietyHealth Research FoundationHealth Sciences Centre FoundationManitoba Health Research CouncilAlberta Health ServicesTeva Pharmaceutical IndustriesBiogen
KeywordsIncidence (geometry)NeuroradiologyMultiple sclerosisNeurologyMedicineDemographyEpidemiologyGerontologyPsychiatryPathologySociology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Province-wide population-based administrative health data from British Columbia (BC), Canada (population: approximately 4.5 million) were used to estimate the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) and examine potential trends over time. All BC residents meeting validated health administrative case definitions for MS were identified using hospital, physician, death, and health registration files. Estimates of annual prevalence (1991-2008), and incidence (1996-2008; allowing a 5-year disease-free run-in period) were age and sex standardized to the 2001 Canadian population. Changes over time in incidence, prevalence and sex ratios were examined using Poisson and log-binomial regression. The incidence rate was stable [average: 7.8/100,000 (95 % CI 7.6, 8.1)], while the female: male ratio decreased (p = 0.045) but remained at or above 2 for all years (average 2.8:1). From 1991-2008, MS prevalence increased by 4.7 % on average per year (p < 0.001) from 78.8/100,000 (95 % CI 75.7, 82.0) to 179.9/100,000 (95 % CI 176.0, 183.8), the sex prevalence ratio increased from 2.27 to 2.78 (p < 0.001) and the peak prevalence age range increased from 45-49 to 55-59 years. MS incidence and prevalence in BC are among the highest in the world. Neither the incidence nor the incidence sex ratio increased over time. However, the prevalence and prevalence sex ratio increased significantly during the 18-year period, which may be explained by the increased peak prevalence age of MS, longer survival with MS and the greater life expectancy of women compared to men.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.020
Threshold uncertainty score0.147

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0030.008
Science and technology studies0.0020.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.056
GPT teacher head0.290
Teacher spread0.234 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations133
Published2015
Admission routes3
Has abstractyes

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