On the Value of Municipal Bond Insurance: An Empirical Analysis
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Using a large sample of municipal bond data from 2001 to 2010 in the U.S., this paper documents the time variation of the value of municipal bond insurance, estimated from the insured and uninsured bonds yield at issue differentials. We find that insured municipal bonds carry significant lower yields at issue compared to those of the equivalent uninsured bonds before 2008. However, this cost saving disappeared with the aftermath of the subprime credit crisis. We find that the supply of bonds and the level of market interest rates to have significant positive impacts on the time‐varying value of bond insurance. We also detect asymmetric response of these yield differentials to rises and declines of market interest rates. Economic intuition suggests that the value of municipal bond insurance is a function of business cycles but our tests support the contrary, which may be explained by the habitat preference of municipal bonds issues.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it