Non‐parametric Bayesian Hazard Regression for Chronic Disease Risk Assessment
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Assessing the absolute risk for a future disease event in presently healthy individuals has an important role in the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and other chronic conditions. In this paper, we study the use of non‐parametric Bayesian hazard regression techniques and posterior predictive inferences in the risk assessment task. We generalize our previously published Bayesian multivariate monotonic regression procedure to a survival analysis setting, combined with a computationally efficient estimation procedure utilizing case–base sampling. To achieve parsimony in the model fit, we allow for multidimensional relationships within specified subsets of risk factors, determined either on a priori basis or as a part of the estimation procedure. We apply the proposed methods for 10‐year CVD risk assessment in a Finnish population. © 2014 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it