A Bayesian nonparametric method for model evaluation: application to genetic studies
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Statistical models applied to genetic studies commonly assume linear relationships (between disease and risk factors) and simple distributional forms (by relying on asymptotic methods) for inference. However, when the sample size is small, inference using traditional asymptotic models can be problematic. Moreover, the gene-disease relationship is not always linear. In this article, we present a new nonparametric Bayesian method for model assessment, and we demonstrate the advantages of this approach particularly when the sample size is small and/or the true model is non-linear. We evaluate our approach on simulated data and find that it performs substantially better than alternative models. We also apply our method to two real studies: diagnosis of conventional high-grade non-metastatic osteosarcoma, and survival in Burkitt's lymphoma.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it