Reference evapotranspiration forecasting using different artificial neural networks algorithms
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The present study aims to apply artificial neural networks (ANNs) for reference evapotranspiration (ETo) prediction. Three different feed-forward artifical neural network (ANN) models, each using varied input combinations of previous months ETo, have been trained and tested. The output of the network was the one-month-ahead ETo. The networks learned to forecast one-month-ahead ETo for Mahanadi reservoir project area using the three learning methods namely quasi-Newton algorithm, Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm and backpropagation with adaptive learning rate algorithm. The training results were compared with each other, and performance evaluations were done for untrained data. The performance evaluations measured were standard error of estimates (SEE), raw standard error of estimates (RSEE), and model efficiency. The best ANN architecture for prediction of ETo was obtained for Mahanadi reservoir project area. The monthly reference evapotranspiration data were estimated by the Penman–Monteith method and used for training and testing of the ANN models. Further ANNs predicted results were compared with those obtained using the statistical multiple regression technique. Based on results obtained, the ANN model with architecture of 3–9-1 (three, nine, and one neuron(s) in the input, hidden, and output layers, respectively) trained using quasi-Newton algorithm was found to be the best amongst all the models with minimum SEE and RSEE of 0.45 and 0.45 mm/d respectively and maximum model efficiency of 93%. It is concluded that ANN can be used to predict ETo.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".