Prediction of Users' Learning Curves for Adaptation while Using an Information Visualization
Bibliographic record
Abstract
User performance and satisfaction when working with an interface is influenced by how quickly the user can acquire the skills necessary to work with the interface through practice. Learning curves are mathematical models that can represent a user's skill acquisition ability through parameters that describe the user's initial expertise as well as her learning rate. This information could be used by an interface to provide adaptive support to users who may otherwise be slow in learning the necessary skills. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of predicting in real time a user's learning curve when working with ValueChart, an interactive visualization for decision making. Our models leverage various data sources (a user's gaze behavior, pupil dilation, cognitive abilities), and we show that they outperform a baseline that leverages only knowledge on user task performance so far. We also show that the best performing model achieves good accuracies in predicting users' learning curves even after observing users' performance only on a few tasks. These results are promising toward the design of user-adaptive visualizations that can dynamically support a user in acquiring the necessary skills to complete visual tasks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.044 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".