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Record W1969065232 · doi:10.3846/16484142.2014.1003324

Modelling bus delay at bus stop

2015· article· en· W1969065232 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueTransport · 2015
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicTransportation Planning and Optimization
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersNational Key Research and Development Program of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China
KeywordsQueueing theoryTransfer (computing)Block (permutation group theory)Queuing delayComputer scienceSimulationReal-time computingMathematicsComputer network

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

A bus may be blocked from entering and exiting a stop by other buses and traffic lights. The objective of this paper is to model each type of delay under these phenomena and the overall delay a bus experiences at a stop. Occupy-based delay, transfer block-based delay and block-based delay are defined and modelled. Bus delay at stop is just the sum of these three types of delay. Bus arrival rate, bus service rate, berth number and traffic lights are taken into consideration when modelling delay. Occupy-based delay is modelled with mean waiting time in Queueing theory. Transfer block-based delay and block-based delay are modelled based on standard deviation of waiting time and the probabilities of their occurrences. Two stops in Vancouver, Canada are selected for parameter estimation and model validation. The unknown parameter is estimated as 0.4230 using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), which indicates that 42.3% of waiting time variation can be attributed to buses being blocked by the buses in front and red light for the selected stops. Model validation shows the average accuracy rate of the proposed model is 75.07% for the selected stops. Bus delay at stop evidently increases when arrival rate is more than 85 buses per hour for the given service time (50 s), ratio of red time to cycle length (0.65) and berth number (2). We also figure out that bus delay at stop evidently increases when service time is more than 60 s for the given arrival rate (54 buses per hour), ratio of red time to cycle length (0.65) and berth number (2). The proposed model can provide a tool for bus stop design and offer the foundation for service quality evaluation of transit.

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Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.897
Threshold uncertainty score0.489

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.065
GPT teacher head0.293
Teacher spread0.228 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it