Dynamic prediction of risk of death using history of cancer recurrences in joint frailty models
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Evaluating the prognosis of patients according to their demographic, biological, or disease characteristics is a major issue, as it may be used for guiding treatment decisions. In cancer studies, typically, more than one endpoint can be observed before death. Patients may undergo several types of events, such as local recurrences and distant metastases, with death as the terminal event. Accuracy of clinical decisions may be improved when the history of these different events is considered. Thus, it may be useful to dynamically predict patients' risk of death using recurrence history. As previously applied within the framework of joint models for longitudinal and time to event data, we propose a dynamic prediction tool based on joint frailty models. Joint modeling accounts for the dependence between recurrent events and death, by the introduction of a random effect shared by the two processes. We estimate the probability of death between the prediction time t and a horizon t + w, conditional on information available at time t. Prediction can be updated with the occurrence of a new event. We proposed and compared three prediction settings, taking into account three different information levels. The proposed tools are applied to patients diagnosed with a primary invasive breast cancer and treated with breast-conserving surgery, followed for more than 10 years in a French comprehensive cancer center.
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Direct model labels (unvalidated)
Per-model category and study-design labels from the labeling rounds. They are machine output, unvalidated, and the disagreement between models ships as data. No study design here is MEDLINE-validated yet.
| Model arm | Categories | Study design | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| gpt | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Methods About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no | Observational | high |
| grok | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Methods About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no | Observational | high |
| opus | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Methods About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no | Simulation or modeling | high |
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it