Bootrapping robust estimates of regression
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We introduce a new computer-intensive method to estimate the distribution of robust regression estimates. The basic idea behind our method is to bootstrap a reweighted representation of the estimates. To obtain a bootstrap method that is asymptotically correct, we include the auxiliary scale estimate in our reweighted representation of the estimates. Our method is computationally simple because for each bootstrap sample we only have to solve a linear system of equations. The weights we use are decreasing functions of the absolute value of the residuals and hence outlying observations receive small weights. This results in a bootstrap method that is resistant to the presence of outliers in the data. The breakdown points of the quantile estimates derived with this method are higher than those obtained with the bootstrap. We illustrate our method on two datasets and we report the results of a Monte Carlo experiment on confidence intervals for the parameters of the linear model.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it