MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W1969946313 · doi:10.1080/02664760802192981

Diagnostics of prior-data agreement in applied Bayesian analysis

2008· article· en· W1969946313 on OpenAlexaff
Nicolás Bousquet

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Applied Statistics · 2008
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicAdvanced Statistical Process Monitoring
Canadian institutionsUniversité Laval
Fundersnot available
KeywordsBayesian probabilityPrior probabilityComputer scienceBayesian hierarchical modelingBayesian averageReliability (semiconductor)Bayesian statisticsBayesian experimental designData miningStatisticsBayesian inferenceMathematicsArtificial intelligence

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This article focused on the definition and the study of a binary Bayesian criterion which measures a statistical agreement between a subjective prior and data information. The setting of this work is concrete Bayesian studies. It is an alternative and a complementary tool to the method recently proposed by Evans and Moshonov, [M. Evans and H. Moshonov, Checking for Prior-data conflict, Bayesian Anal. 1 (2006), pp. 893–914]. Both methods try to help the work of the Bayesian analyst, from preliminary to the posterior computation. Our criterion is defined as a ratio of Kullback–Leibler divergences; two of its main features are to make easy the check of a hierarchical prior and be used as a default calibration tool to obtain flat but proper priors in applications. Discrete and continuous distributions exemplify the approach and an industrial case study in reliability, involving the Weibull distribution, is highlighted.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.155
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.489
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.155
Threshold uncertainty score0.817

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.1550.489
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0020.002
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0030.002
Bibliometrics0.0100.006
Science and technology studies0.0020.014
Scholarly communication0.0080.010
Open science0.0040.009
Research integrity0.0050.006
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.140
GPT teacher head0.413
Teacher spread0.273 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations62
Published2008
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueJournal of Applied StatisticsSame topicAdvanced Statistical Process MonitoringFrench-language works237,207