Impacts of low frequency variability modes on Canadian winter temperature
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on winter (January–February–March) temperature variability over Canada are analysed for the period 1900–1995. Through linear regression, regional characteristics in the interannual temperature variability explained by these oscillations are firstly identified. Modulation of El Niño and La Niña winter temperature responses by various combinations of the PDO and NAO is then investigated via composite analysis. Results show the NAO as the dominant low frequency variability mode affecting winter temperature, however, the effects are mainly confined to north‐eastern regions of the country. The ENSO and PDO influences are somewhat weaker and occur over western and central Canada. It is determined that the associated winter PDO pattern has a significant modulating effect on ENSO related temperature responses. Impacts are stronger and more spatially coherent during El Niño episodes when positive PDO winters are associated with strong positive temperature anomalies over most of Canada, neutral PDO with weaker anomalies (positive in the west and negative in the east), and negative PDO with strong negative anomalies over western Canada. Analysis also suggests that La Niña and negative PDO combinations are associated with negative temperature anomalies, especially in the far west. Over eastern regions of Canada, El Niño (La Niña) events modulate the typical positive (negative) NAO temperature responses by generally making them warmer (colder). All observed relationships are explained by variations in associated mid‐tropospheric circulation over the north Pacific (i.e. Aleutian low region), and western and central North America. Results from this investigation aid in the understanding of relationships between low frequency oscillations and winter temperature variability over Canada. They also suggest the possibility of improved winter temperature forecasts based on conditions in the tropical and north Pacific, and the north Atlantic. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it