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Record W1975494033 · doi:10.1177/0013164413487738

False Positives in Multiple Regression

2013· article· en· W1975494033 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueEducational and Psychological Measurement · 2013
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicAdvanced Statistical Methods and Models
Canadian institutionsUniversity of British Columbia
Fundersnot available
KeywordsType I and type II errorsStatisticsRegressionFalse positive paradoxRegression analysisEconometricsObservational errorRegression diagnosticNominal levelInflation (cosmology)Computer scienceLinear regressionFalse positives and false negativesMathematicsPolynomial regressionConfidence interval

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Type I error rates in multiple regression, and hence the chance for false positive research findings, can be drastically inflated when multiple regression models are used to analyze data that contain random measurement error. This article shows the potential for inflated Type I error rates in commonly encountered scenarios and provides new insights into the causes of this problem. Computer simulations and an illustrative example are used to demonstrate that when the predictor variables in a multiple regression model are correlated and one or more of them contains random measurement error, Type I error rates can approach 1.00, even for a nominal level of 0.05. The most important factors causing the problem are summarized and the implications are discussed. The authors use Zumbo’s Draper–Lindley–de Finetti framework to show that the inflation in Type I error rates results from a mismatch between the data researchers have, the assumptions of the statistical model, and the inferences they hope to make.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.238
Threshold uncertainty score0.455

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.451
GPT teacher head0.485
Teacher spread0.034 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it