Predictors of progression to chronic dialysis in survivors of severe acute kidney injury: a competing risk study
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Survivors of acute kidney injury are at an increased risk of developing irreversible deterioration in kidney function and in some cases, the need for chronic dialysis. We aimed to determine predictors of chronic dialysis and death among survivors of dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury. METHODS: We used linked administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, to identify patients who were discharged from hospital after an episode of acute kidney injury requiring dialysis and remained free of further dialysis for at least 90 days after discharge between 1996 and 2009. Follow-up extended until March 31, 2011. The primary outcome was progression to chronic dialysis. Predictors for this outcome were evaluated using cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models, and a competing risk approach was used to calculate absolute risk. RESULTS: We identified 4 383 patients with acute kidney injury requiring temporary in-hospital dialysis who survived to discharge. After a mean follow-up of 2.4 years, 356 (8%) patients initiated chronic dialysis and 1475 (34%) died. The cumulative risk of chronic dialysis was 13.5% by the Kaplan-Meier method, and 10.3% using a competing risk approach. After accounting for the competing risk of death, previous nephrology consultation (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) 2.03; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-2.58), a history of chronic kidney disease (sHR3.86; 95% CI 2.99-4.98), a higher Charlson comorbidity index score (sHR 1.10; 95% CI 1.05-1.15/per unit) and pre-existing hypertension (sHR 1.82; 95% CI 1.28-2.58) were significantly associated with an increased risk of progression to chronic dialysis. CONCLUSIONS: Among survivors of dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury who initially become dialysis independent, the subsequent need for chronic dialysis is predicted by pre-existing kidney disease, hypertension and global comorbidity. This information can identify patients at high risk of progressive kidney disease who may benefit from closer surveillance after cessation of the acute phase of illness.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it