The effects of inflation uncertainty: some international evidence
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of inflation uncertainty on real economic activity using data from four industrialised countries. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses the econometric framework developed by Elder in the context of a multivariate framework in which a structural vector autoregression (VAR) is modified to accommodate multivariate GARCH‐in‐mean (MGARCH‐M) errors. It calculates the impulse response functions for the multivariate GARCH(1,1)‐in‐mean VAR in order to see whether the specification captures the fundamental dynamics. Findings The results show that inflation uncertainty has differential effects on output growth across these countries. Originality/value In the context of multivariate GARCH(1,1)‐in‐mean VAR, this paper uses a non‐recursive identification scheme and separate identification for the large and small economies.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it