Spatiotemporal Relationships Between Disease Development and Airborne Inoculum in Unmanaged and Managed Botrytis Leaf Blight Epidemics
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Comparatively little quantitative information is available on both the spatial and temporal relationships that develop between airborne inoculum and disease intensity during the course of aerially spread epidemics. Botrytis leaf blight and Botrytis squamosa airborne inoculum were analyzed over space and time during 2 years (2002 and 2004) in a nonprotected experimental field, using a 6 x 8 lattice of quadrats of 10 x 10 m each. A similar experiment was conducted in 2004 and 2006 in a commercial field managed for Botrytis leaf blight using a 5 x 5 lattice of quadrats of 25 x 25 m each. Each quadrat was monitored weekly for lesion density (LD) and aerial conidium concentration (ACC). The adjustment of the Taylor's power law showed that heterogeneity in both LD and ACC generally increased with increasing mean. Unmanaged epidemics were characterized in either year, with aggregation indices derived from SADIE (Spatial Analysis by Distance Indices). For LD, the aggregation indices suggested a random pattern of disease early in the season, followed by an aggregated pattern in the second part of the epidemic. The index of aggregation for ACC in 2002 was significantly greater than 1 at only one date, while it was significantly greater than 1 at most sampling dates in 2004. In both years and for both variables, positive trends in partial autocorrelation were observed mainly for a spatial lag of 1. In 2002, the overall pattern of partial autocorrelations over sampling dates was similar for LD and ACC with no significant partial autocorrelation during the first part of the epidemic, followed by a period with significant positive autocorrelation, and again no autocorrelation on the last three sampling dates. In 2004, there was no significant positive autocorrelation for LD at most sampling dates while for ACC, there was a fluctuation between significant and non-significant positive correlation over sampling dates. There was a significant spatial correlation between ACC at given date (t(i)) and LD 1 week later (t(i + 1)) on most sampling dates in both 2002 and 2004 for the unmanaged and managed sites. It was concluded that LD and ACC were not aggregated in the early stage of epidemics, when both disease intensity and airborne conidia concentration were low. This was supported by the analysis of LD and ACC from a commercial field, where managed levels of disease were low, and where no aggregation of both variables was detected. It was further concluded that a reliable monitoring of airborne inoculum for management of Botrytis leaf blight is achievable in managed fields using few spore samplers per field.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it