Estimating the Prognosis of Hepatitis C Patients Infected by Transfusion in Canada between 1986 and 1990
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To develop a natural history model for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection to determine allocation of compensatory funds to Canadians who acquired HCV through the blood supply from 1986 through 1990. METHODS: A Markov cohort simulation model for HCV prognosis was developed, using content experts, published data, posttransfusion look-back data, and a national survey. RESULTS: The mortality rate in transfusees is high (46% at 10 years), although HCV-related deaths are rare. Only 14% develop cirrhosis at 20 years (95% confidence interval, 0%--44%), but 1 in 4 will eventually develop cirrhosis, and 1 in 8 will die of liver disease. CONCLUSIONS: This unique application of Markov cohort simulation and epidemiologic methods provides a state-of-the-art estimate of HCV prognosis and has allowed compensation decisions to be based on the best available evidence.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".